Waiting for expectations – how will the oil supercycle end?
The oil price slump has come as a huge surprise for the market. The very scale of the phenomenon is astounding, of course, but what is really interesting is that although everyone knew about the...
View ArticleThe implications of oil price slump
Low crude prices are now a fact and likely to remain so for the next few (or more) quarters. This is how long it will take the market to absorb the current supply glut and non-OPEC producers to cut...
View ArticleThe Energy Union – not as black as it’s painted
The Energy Union is still very much like a yeti. Though no one has seen it yet, it is already feared. But this is to be expected considering that the concept was born out of concern for security in the...
View ArticleAre crude oil prices rebounding?
Since the beginning of February, the price of Brent crude has gone up by nearly USD 10 per barrel. Analysts agree that the recent price hike was driven primarily by data published by Baker Hughes, a...
View ArticleAfter a digital revolution, time for a revolution in the energy sector
On February 28th 2015, I attended a very interesting event – the Polish Economic Forum. Held at the London School of Economics, the conference had been organised by Polish students of the LSE SU Polish...
View ArticleCheap oil and strong dollar
Crude oil and the US dollar are interconnected on many levels. Oil is one of the world’s most important commodities, while the dollar is the most powerful reserve currency, held by central banks as...
View ArticleStrategic scenarios – mind over numbers
Any strategy refers to specific external factors. In the case of oil companies, macroeconomic variables can include crude oil prices, product margins and the price of the US dollar. As changes in these...
View ArticleEconomic policy recommendations from Nobel laureates
As it happened, I was unable to attend the lecture by Prof. Finn E. Kydland and Prof. Edward C. Prescott, entitled ‘The Poor Economic Performances in the EU and the US: Problems are Political, not...
View ArticleOil and fuel markets are not the same
The quarter’s end is a good time to confront what we had expected would happen on the oil and fuel markets with what actually happened. And this past quarter was certainly interesting in its diversity....
View ArticleWhy does the price of gasoline fall slower than the price of oil?
Few economic phenomena attract as much attention in Poland as fuel prices. This is not surprising, considering that an average household owns at least one passenger car, and the share of fuels in total...
View ArticleChina is slowing down. That’s good news.
China has spooked investors. What has been happening on financial markets for over a month, since the speculative bubble burst in Shanghai, is reminiscent of the onset of the great recession in...
View ArticleRun, Forrest! Run!
It would seem that profit and growth are two sides of the same coin, which is a company’s continued presence on the market. As R&D spending is financed from profit, the higher the profit, the...
View ArticleSaudi Aramco crude on the Baltic Sea – a one-off opportunity or new supply...
A Saudi Arabian vessel carrying crude oil has recently put into port in Gdańsk. The event would have likely gone unnoticed had it not been for Rosneft CEO’s comment that it marked another stage in...
View ArticleWill the US oil export ban be lifted?
On October 9th 2015, the US House of Representatives passed, thanks to the Republicans’ votes, a bill lifting the oil export ban, which will have to be approved by the Senate, where the Republicans are...
View ArticleWhat would change if the US were to start exporting its oil?
More than a year ago, it was on the very same blog that I said that the US export ban would be lifted since maintaining it was not economically viable, and doing so would be beneficial to the economies...
View ArticleNext year likely to be the last year of cheap crude
Daily crude price data tell the story: in 2015 the prices yo-yoed. At the beginning of the year, Brent oil traded at 55 USD/bbl. In mid-May, the price went up to USD 66, to dip below USD 35 at the year...
View ArticleWhy should we invest in innovation?
We are creating the independent potential of our economy, covering the complete value chain – from concept development and R&D up to the final product reaching global markets. By investing in...
View ArticleEffects of low oil prices will be felt in several years
Last year, we outlined our expectations as to crude oil prices and margins over the coming two years. We anticipated substantial daily fluctuations as part of shorter or longer cycles, painting a...
View ArticleRandom forecast
Not a day goes by without me being asked about future oil prices. And all discussions that follow end with the inescapable conclusion that oil prices cannot be predicted. This is a complete reversal in...
View ArticleSooner-than-expected equilibrium and greater uncertainty
In Q2 2016, the situation on the global oil market unfolded in line with our expectations. Oil prices continued on an upward trend started around mid-January 2016. On the back of stronger demand...
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